2FIRSTS | Echo Guo: The Accumulating Risks Behind the Surge in Chinese Vape Exports to the U.S.
Despite increased enforcement, Chinese vape exports to the U.S. surged in October 2025, indicating a release of delayed shipments and shifting risks within the supply chain.Summary
A recent surge in Chinese vape exports to the U.S., despite intensified enforcement efforts, isn't a sign of sustained demand recovery but rather a release of previously delayed shipments, creating a bullwhip effect. This has shifted financial risk onto Chinese manufacturers, who face cash-flow pressures due to low deposit payments from U.S. distributors and accumulating inventory. U.S. vape inventory is estimated to exceed 160 million units, potentially reaching 240 million with in-transit stock. This excess inventory is now being redirected to emerging markets like Africa and South America at discounted prices. Manufacturers are paradoxically hoping for stricter U.S. enforcement to temporarily reduce supply and improve cash flow, while a significant gap exists between U.S. import data and Chinese export data due to altered shipping declarations. The article cautions against equating 'China-made' products with 'illicit vapes,' emphasizing the need for precise regulation and international cooperation to address systemic risks within the global vape supply chain.
(Source：2Firsts)
